Capturing the dynamics of a mobility system under transition:

A System Dynamics Tool

Cost Based approach

Introduction
The main aim of this step is to provide concrete estimations on the dynamic effect of a specific policy action or measure on the urban mobility environment. Towards this aim, a cost-based approach was followed through which the variables of the system are expressed in costs by using the functions identified in the context of SPROUT.

The main outcome of this analysis is the calculation of the costs generated to a city's sustainability area (economy, environment, community and the mobility) by the tested measure and a chosen set of policy responses and cross-compare those with the future mobility states estimated in do-nothing scenarios.

In order to assess the future cost of the tested measure, two different future scenarios are implemented together with the current situation. Specifically:
1) The current situation of the city (CS: Current Situation),
2) Scenario that city doesn't take any action (DN: Do Nothing),
3) Scenario that city implements a measure and supports it with a set of policies (PR: Policy Response).

Hereby you can read an introduction of SPROUT pilot cities and check the animated city profiles here (and detailed here).

What is the purpose of the module?
Assuming that a city wants to test a policy measure with an expected impact on modal split and kilometres driven. The scope of this module is to assess the policy package that the city has selected to support the effectiveness of the measure and enhance its potential scale-up.

Research Question: What will be the final impact of the city's mobility state after applying the selected policy package?

🔗And you can also check the deliverable "D5.2 Urban policy system dynamics model" here.

Instructions

How to calculate the future cost of a measure and the estimated savings?
(approx. 15-20 mins)

In the following model fill:
- General information about the city (Population, commuting distance, etc.)
- The variables needed (e.g. modal split, etc.) at CS, in DN and in PR scenarios.

View video

General information

Which city do you represent? *

What is the type of organization you represent? *

What is your role in your organization? *

Please indicate your level of experience in mobility and city logistics planning and policy making? *

City information

What is the population of the city at the specific year? *

Year *

For how many years do you want to conduct the analysis? *

years

What is the current population rate of your city? *

Do you know the commuting distance of your city? (If no: Fill 0) *

What is the population density of your country? *

people/km²

What is the metropolitan size of your city? *

km²

Does the selected policy measure/policy response involves the use of Scooters? *

Scenario: Current Situation (CS)

Is there any SPROUT city with similar urban mobility system to yours?

If you select a city, specific values will be filled based on the analysis that was done in SPROUT

What is the current Modal Split of your city? *

% Car

% PT

% Cycling

% Walking

% Other

What is the current share of electric Fleet of the following vehicles in your city? *

% eCar

-% Car

% ePT

-% PT

% eFreight

-% Freight

% eScooter

-% Scooter

Scenario: Do Nothing (DN)

Selected city: -

What is the expected Modal Split of your city in case of doing nothing (DN Scenario)? *

% Car

% PT

% Cycling

% Walking

% Other

What is the expected share of electric Fleet of the following vehicles in your city in case of the the doing nothing (DN scenario)? *

% eCar

-% Car

% ePT

-% PT

% eFreight

-% Freight

% eScooter

-% Scooter

What is the expected impact on total kilometers in case of doing nothing (DN Scenario)? *

% Passenger

% Freight

What is your level of confidence for the DN Scenario? *

Very low Confidence

Low Confidence

Medium Confidence

High Confidence

Very high Confidence

Scenario: Policy Response (PR)

(Optional) Select a predefined use case from SPROUT experience:

If you select a use case, specific values will be filled based on the analysis that was done in SPROUT

What is the expected Modal Split of your city applying the selected policy response(s) (PR Scenario)? *

% Car

% PT

% Cycling

% Walking

% Other

What is the expected impact of the the selected policy response(s) on following vehicles (PR Scenario)? *

% Car

% PT

% Cycling

% Walking

% Other

What is the expected impact of the selected policy response(s) on total kilometers (PR Scenario)? *

% Passenger

% Freight

What is the expected share of electric Fleet of the following vehicles in your city applying the selected policy response(s) (PR Scenario)? *

% eCar

-% Car

% ePT

-% PT

% eFreight

-% Freight

% eScooter

-% Scooter

What is your level of confidence for the PR Scenario? *

Very low Confidence

Low Confidence

Medium Confidence

High Confidence

Very high Confidence

Results

Savings	Current situation	Policy response
Environmental
Community
Economic
Total